#prediction markets

Early on Friday, a set of prediction-market contracts I have tracked since...

The confession arrived in August, tucked inside a routine corporate update....

The signal was clean — almost too clean. On January 16, 2025, a wallet linked...

The bull market in prediction markets is lying to you. Over the past seven...

I was scrolling through the usual noise of my X feed when a ruling from the...

On March 6, 2025, Donald Trump publicly downplayed the Iranian threat just...

On any given Tuesday, a headline flashes across the terminal: “Polymarket’s...

A few weeks ago, I watched a friend nervously refresh a legal case tracker. N...

The market reaction to the temporary injunction against Minnesota's predictio...

The yield spiked. Not on-chain — not yet. The signal came from an SEC filing,...

Hook (The Block Explorer Reveals What the Headline Hides) The real story isn'...

Manchester United’s odds to win the Premier League just hit 80% on major...

Fanatics just bought a federally regulated exchange and clearinghouse. Minted...

Silence speaks louder than the algorithmic hum. Over the past five months, a...

Álvaro Arbeloa took his first steps as a head coach on a Saturday evening. Th...

The 9.5% number caught my eye. Not a price. Not a volume. A prediction market...

We didn't need another systemic exploit to expose the fault lines in...

Over the past 72 hours, two things happened: the WSJ dropped a scoop about...

A single Polymarket account, 'GCottrell93,' received $9 million in...

Hook The Polymarket contract “Iran-2026 Reconstruction Fund Agreement” is...

The Telegram alerts hit at 2:03 AM Lagos time. A Ukrainian strike in...

The market doesn’t care about your sentiment; it cares about your liquidity....

The audit trail of a broken liquidity trap doesn't always start with a smart...

We didn’t see this coming — at least not this fast. Azerbaijan drops a bomb....

A 15-point swing in 24 hours. The prediction market for Iran closing its...

Over the past 24 hours, a prediction market has priced the probability of the...

The predictive markets for the Clarity Act's passage are pricing in a...

The data suggests a 78% probability that Iran will attack Israel by July 22....

Hook: A 20% toll on the Strait of Hormuz — headlines scream, but prediction...

The ledger shows a 46.5% probability. That is the number the prediction marke...

A single number crept across my screen last Thursday: 23%. Polymarket's...

I spent the first half of 2027 tracing reentrancy vulnerabilities in AI-agent...

We’ve all been there. Scrolling through Polymarket, watching a contract tick...

The final whistle blew at 22:47 local time. The underdog had won 2-1. Within...

The July 22, 2024, House Agriculture Committee hearing was not a debate. It w...

I watched the 2026 World Cup final from a cabin in the Cascades—no live strea...

A prediction market assigns a 0.4% probability to a permanent peace deal...

3.6 percent. That is the current price on Polymarket for 'Iranian regime...

Gas spike imminent. Wait. The headline hit my terminal at 14:32 UTC: "US forc...

$990,000 in six months. That’s what Kalshi spent on lobbying in the first hal...

The Tabriz Airstrike's Crypto Fingerprint: On-Chain Liquidity Traces Before t...

Over the past 48 hours, two data points collided in my terminal that most...

I read the silence in the order book. It was early morning in Seoul, and I wa...

The fork wasn’t. The betting lines moved before the first missile. At 3:47 AM...

The data moves in a straight line — then it breaks. On May 20, 2024, the...

Watching the ledger breathe beneath the noise A quiet signal emerged from...

The dollar's share of oil trades is falling. Over the past 90 days, the decli...

Over the past 48 hours, the Trump administration's hint at 'imminent action' ...

Tracing the ghost in the machine, I find it humming not in Tehran’s radar...

The ledger bleeds faster than the logic holds. That is the only law that...